leslie人口增长模型模型 - 图文(9)

T(j+1,1)=exp(-b1(1,j+1)); end

Y(i+1)=sum(F)/E(i+1,1); %平均年龄 end

Y %输出01-50年平均年龄矩阵 T=0; s=0;

for i=0:90 %大于90岁的按90岁算

T=T+exp(b1(1,j+1)-1); %求平均寿命，不随年份而变化 end T

W=Y/T; %社会老龄化指数 x=2001:2050; W1=compare(1.6); W2=compare(1.8);

23

W3=compare(2.0); W4=compare(2.2); plot(x,W1,'-r') hold on plot(x,W2,'-G') plot(x,W3,'-B') plot(x,W4,'-Y')

附录7：

年龄 女性总人数（万人） 0 680.8912721 1 584.5917197 2 584.5582068 3 692.2202166 4 724.1102102 5 775.5360408 6 847.368918 7 834.4187027 8 917.9220422 9 951.4668194 10 1070.015717 11 1249.256063 12 1199.263988 13 1202.198525 14 1274.218917 15 1111.050839 16 992.3144255 17 893.7975435 18 874.6573467 19 984.3568772 20 859.5767785 21 852.1534601 22 908.6441803 23 897.9448075 24 880.5393233 25 1019.086724 26 1042.18667 27 1114.823731 28 1192.867199 29 1203.566572 30 1272.973995 31 1328.513576 32 1254.992403 33 1333.819445 出生婴儿数 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.04975282 0.31969267 0.32019903 0.878684215 4.610104752 9.464941793 28.6464102 52.58813995 67.23067828 60.91747665 77.49047872 70.08595946 58.44954611 52.16702211 41.34311586 31.35682793 30.89130407 23.02138824 19.60884638 24

平均有孩子数 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.478E-05 0.000322169 0.000358246 0.001004604 0.004683367 0.011011165 0.033616492 0.057875394 0.074871727 0.069182006 0.076039141 0.06724895 0.052429406 0.043732464 0.034350502 0.024632733 0.023252532 0.018343847 0.014701275 女性死亡率 0.025093034 0.000678769 0.00227567 0.000752384 0.000432582 0.000819337 0.000112052 0.000612404 0.000381414 1.43283E-05 0.000610566 0.000275646 0.000198204 0.000372374 0.000295205 0.000360314 0.000271538 2.54672E-05 0.000826673 0.001045882 0.000558933 0.000642608 0.000709325 0.001000824 0.000118396 0.001103653 0.001644061 0.000864661 0.000925473 0.001127348 0.000819206 0.001081841 0.000953888 0.000957646 存活率 0.974906966 0.999321231 0.99772433 0.999247616 0.999567418 0.999180663 0.999887948 0.999387596 0.999618586 0.999985672 0.999389434 0.999724354 0.999801796 0.999627626 0.999704795 0.999639686 0.999728462 0.999974533 0.999173327 0.998954118 0.999441067 0.999357392 0.999290675 0.998999176 0.999881604 0.998896347 0.998355939 0.999135339 0.999074527 0.998872652 0.999180794 0.998918159 0.999046112 0.999042354 34 1103.186123 35 1224.70307 36 1220.643442 37 1236.736319 38 1390.726415 39 980.7651115 40 646.684069 41 785.6606232 42 701.6275919 43 910.4201123 44 960.1576463 45 914.2587126 46 953.9805681 47 927.4299561 48 851.0077586 49 825.4823586 50 807.9428229 51 736.5520021 52 690.4320402 53 605.8029501 54 615.5106238 55 554.7856629 56 503.7013501 57 480.0517619 58 468.7228174 59 455.3640586 60 484.3865412 61 447.3446813 62 420.1644977 63 442.3803304 64 426.5290912 65 428.1838749 66 391.3295304 67 380.4091293 68 385.3399674 69 327.9245739 70 334.6977109 71 307.330012 72 262.8648337 73 270.6631827 74 235.8721654 75 208.7254946 76 212.001549 77 178.4567718 12.17913165 0.011039961 8.71689379 0.007117557 6.218986948 0.005094843 4.443481847 0.00359291 3.497479671 0.002514858 2.436986371 0.002484781 1.141209173 0.001764709 1.15621292 0.001471644 0.474969244 0.000676953 0.241694883 0.000265476 0.385478795 0.000401474 0.373729499 0.000408779 0.105364204 0.000110447 0.178438804 0.000192401 0.331399971 0.000389421 0.184965341

0.000224069

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 25

0.000603973 0.001375028 0.001747284 0.000402145 0.001289055 0.000996726 0.000556556 0.000858585 0.001227899 0.001059495 0.002094995 0.001625438 0.002216226 0.002403334 0.002655094 0.003045501 0.003330216 0.003969241 0.004993361 0.003842512 0.005352256 0.004220565 0.004347687 0.00422287 0.007522194 0.005030436 0.011869463 0.010715132 0.011296039 0.011697437 0.01579176 0.015504584 0.014701265 0.019937911 0.021071693 0.022641554 0.028873011 0.030696101 0.030020182 0.03594941 0.038259688 0.03270294 0.051697654 0.053428441 0.999396027 0.998624972 0.998252716 0.999597855 0.998710945 0.999003274 0.999443444 0.999141415 0.998772101 0.998940505 0.997905005 0.998374562 0.997783774 0.997596666 0.997344906 0.996954499 0.996669784 0.996030759 0.995006639 0.996157488 0.994647744 0.995779435 0.995652313 0.99577713 0.992477806 0.994969564 0.988130537 0.989284868 0.988703961 0.988302563 0.98420824 0.984495416 0.985298735 0.980062089 0.978928307 0.977358446 0.971126989 0.969303899 0.969979818 0.96405059 0.961740312 0.96729706 0.948302346 0.946571559