leslie人口增长模型模型 - 图文(7)

A(i,:)=A(i,:)*b(1,i); end A;

c=[0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.478E-05 0.000322169 0.000358246 0.001004604 0.004683367 0.011011165 0.033616492 0.057875394 0.074871727 0.069182006 0.076039141 0.06724895 0.052429406 0.043732464 0.034350502 0.024632733

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0.023252532 0.018343847 0.014701275 0.011039961 0.007117557 0.005094843 0.00359291 0.002514858 0.002484781 0.001764709 0.001471644 0.000676953 0.000265476 0.000401474

0.000408779 0.000110447 0.000192401 0.000389421 0.000224069 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0]; c1=1.295274487*c;

M=sum(c1'); %总合生育率 d=zeros(91,1); B=[c1;A];

L=[B,d]; %构造的lestie矩阵 for i=0:49

H=L^i*N0; %第i年人口总数 Q(1,i+1)=sum(H([16:50],:)); %第i年15-49育龄妇女总数 P(1,i+1)=sum(H([21:30],:)); %第i年20-29生育旺盛期妇女总数 end x=2001:2050; y1=Q*10; y2=P*10; plot(x,y1,'*') plot(x,y2,'-or') grid on

附录5：

计算2001到2051年的人口总数程序

p=0.464429182; %女性占总人口的比例

N=[0.680891272 0.58459172 0.584558207 0.692220217 0.72411021 0.775536041 0.847368918 0.834418703 0.917922042 0.951466819 1.070015717 1.249256063 1.199263988 1.202198525

1.274218917 1.111050839 0.992314425 0.893797544 0.874657347 0.984356877 0.859576778 0.85215346 0.90864418 0.897944807 0.880539323 1.019086724 1.04218667 1.114823731 1.192867199 1.203566572 1.272973995 1.328513576 1.254992403 1.333819445 1.103186123 1.22470307 1.220643442 1.236736319 1.390726415 0.980765111 0.646684069 0.785660623 0.701627592 0.910420112 0.960157646 0.914258713 0.953980568 0.927429956 0.851007759 0.825482359 0.807942823 0.736552002 0.69043204 0.60580295 0.615510624 0.554785663 0.50370135 0.480051762 0.468722817 0.455364059 0.484386541 0.447344681 0.420164498 0.44238033 0.426529091 0.428183875 0.39132953 0.380409129 0.385339967 0.327924574 0.334697711 0.307330012 0.262864834 0.270663183 0.235872165 0.208725495 0.212001549 0.178456772 0.164260316 0.149842833 0.138734916 0.109899949 0.097358277 0.0765762 0.0638135 0.055794123 0.049396016 0.0382881 0.033544777 0.023870616 0.070211606]; N0=N'/10; %第0年（2001年）的女性各个年龄段的人口数(千万） N00=N0/10 %把单位化成亿（人） A=eye(90);

b=[0.974906966 0.999321231 0.99772433 0.999247616 0.999567418 0.999180663 0.999887948 0.999387596 0.999618586 0.999985672 0.999389434 0.999724354 0.999801796 0.999627626 0.999704795 0.999639686 0.999728462 0.999974533 0.999173327 0.998954118 0.999441067

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