申银万国—2011年9月大势研判

股票

股票市场 大势分析

证券研

究报告

证券分析师

魏道科A0230511040068

月度大势研判

2011年9月2日

九月:2500-2700

——2011年9月大势研判

相关研究

我们估计2011年9月上证指数主要波动区间为2500点至2700点。 标普一声吼，美国自此失去了拥有70年之久的3A主权评级，全球市场随

之哀鸿一片：日本接棒成为又一个评级下调的对象，甚至法国也可能难逃厄运；国际大行纷纷下调全球及欧美经济增长预期；汇率市场被搅动，欧元、瑞郎、日元、人民币“被”升值；QE3猜想欲罢不能。

8月份国内宏观数据的微妙变化，令市场猜测紧缩频率将放缓的可能性，但

关于央行计划将规模庞大的保证金存款纳入准备金上缴范围的消息，令大家都出乎意料。如果消息属实，相信是监管层出于进一步规范市场和稳固控通胀成果的考虑，市场流动性将面临考验。整体判断，稳健货币政策的基调仍将持续。

证监会发布《转融通业务监督管理试行办法（草案）》并公开征求意见。一

旦转融通开放，将对市场产生重大和深远影响：信用交易额将大幅上升，机构投资者将迎来新的发展机遇，ETF会在两年内大幅扩容，将一改融资融券规模受限的缺陷，使其真正发挥完善市场机制的作用。

钱康宁A0230511040071

蒋健蓉 A0230511040021

jiangjr@http://doc.guandang.net 马骏A0230511040011 majun@http://doc.guandang.net 联系人 周睿

(8621)23297818×7308

地址：上海市南京东路99号 电话：(8621)23297818

上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司

http://doc.guandang.net

股票

目 录

1．上月市场分析总结·················································2 2.上月市场运行特征统计分析·····································2

2.1 2011年8月市场运行概况································································2 2.2 2011年8月市场整体运行特征·························································2 2.3 2011年8月板块运行·······································································4 2.4 2011年8月个股表现·······································································5

3.市场发展环境分析····················································7

3.1总体结论···························································································7 3.2 宫商不自持，翻成下调悲·································································8 3.3 紧缩之弦欲松还紧···········································································9 3.4 迎接转融通盛宴··········································································· …… 此处隐藏：15516字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……